When authors Andrews & Wilson dropped Executive Power, they plunged readers into a terrifyingly plausible scenario: a coup d’état in Angola, orchestrated by a charismatic rebel leader, Victor Baptista, amidst the chaos of a false-flag attack on a U.S. Embassy. While the Ryanverse is fiction, the mechanics of the takeover described in the novel aren’t just thriller tropes, they mirror a concrete, operational reality that has reshaped the African continent over the last five years.

​Between 2020 and 2023, a coup belt materialized across Africa, stretching from Guinea on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea. By dissecting the anatomy of these real-world takeovers, we can see exactly how the fictional chaos of Executive Power aligns with a new normal of African governance.

​Phase I: The Incubation – Manufacturing the Crisis

​In Executive Power, the coup doesn’t happen in a vacuum; it leverages chaos. Baptista uses the attack on the embassy to prove that the current civilian government cannot protect the nation. This mirrors the Security Deficit, one of the primary drivers of the modern Sahelian coup.

​In the real world, a coup is rarely spontaneous; it is the culmination of a protracted incubation phase. The civilian government’s inability to secure the nation against violent extremists severs the bond of loyalty between the soldiers and the state.

​The Real-World Parallel:

Consider the fall of President Kaboré in Burkina Faso. It wasn’t politics that killed his regime; it was a logistics failure. The Inata Massacre in 2021 saw 53 gendarmes slaughtered by jihadists because they had been left without food rations for two weeks. When soldiers are starving while elites live in luxury, the tactical humiliation creates an irreversible rift, legitimizing a mutiny.

​Just as Baptista creates a security crisis to justify his seizure of power, real-world juntas utilize these security deficits to present themselves not as usurpers, but as saviors restoring order to a failing state.

​Phase II: The Execution – The Palace Revolution

​In Executive Power, the coup involves the complicity of the military elite, specifically General de Souza, turning on the President. This aligns perfectly with what analysts call the Palace Coup typology, recently seen in Gabon.

​Theoretical framework provided by Edward Luttwak suggests that for a coup to succeed, power must be centralized so that plotters can sever the head of the state. Modern African coups have validated this; hyper-presidential systems make the executive branch a singular, high-value target.

​The Real-World Parallel:

The 2023 coup in Niger against Mohamed Bazoum was a textbook inside job. It wasn’t a revolution from the streets, but a blockade by the Presidential Guard, the very unit tasked with protecting the President. Triggered by rumors that President Bazoum intended to dismiss General Tchiani, the praetorian guard turned their guns inward.

​Similarly, in Executive Power, the betrayal comes from within the inner circle. This reflects the terrifying reality of the Coup Trap, where the success of one junta lowers the barrier to entry for conspirators next door, creating a contagion effect across the region.

​Phase III: The Pivot – Rejecting the West

​One of the key tensions in Executive Power is the geopolitical chess match involving China. In reality, the modern African coup is defined by a violent rejection of traditional Western partners (specifically France) and a pivot toward new alliances.

​Real-world coup leaders weaponize the Sovereignty Deficit sentiment, where populations view civilian governments as puppets of Western powers. Following the takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, these nations didn’t just change presidents; they evicted French troops and ambassadors and turned toward Russia and the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) for security.

​The Strategic Shift:

• ​Real World: Formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a mutual defense pact explicitly designed to deter Western-backed intervention.

• ​Fiction: Baptista’s maneuvering represents a similar desire for sovereignist autarky, playing great powers against one another to secure his regime.

​Phase IV: Consolidation – Legalizing the Illegitimate

​Once power is seized, how do you keep it? In Executive Power, the plotters navigate the immediate aftermath to stabilize their rule. Real-world analysis shows this is done through Transition Charters.

​Juntas rapidly promulgate these charters to act as interim constitutions, providing a legal veneer for military rule. They are masterclasses in delaying tactics:

• ​Mali: Established an 18-month timeline that was later abandoned.

• ​Burkina Faso: Amended their charter to extend military rule by five years and explicitly allowed the coup leader to run in future elections.

​This is the Khaki Democracy, where military leaders trade uniforms for suits (or keep the uniforms) and institutionalize their rule for the foreseeable future.

​Art Imitating Life

​The crisis Jack Ryan faces in Executive Power is gripping because it feels ripped from the headlines. But as the research shows, the reality is perhaps even more complex. The African coup has evolved from a temporary aberration into a durable mode of governance.

​We are no longer looking at isolated putsches, but a revolution against the post-colonial order itself. Whether in the fictional streets of Luanda or the very real streets of Niamey and Bamako, the anatomy remains the same: exploit the security failure, decapitate the leadership, pivot from the West, and rewrite the law to stay in power.

Tom Clancy Executive Power is available November 25th, pre-order now.

Read my review: The Rise of Kyle Ryan: Finding Humanity in Tom Clancy Executive Power