For decades, the U.S. Carrier Strike Group (CSG) has stood as the ultimate symbol of American power projection and global naval dominance. The aircraft carrier’s ability to ensure freedom of navigation and maintain a free sea has been a cornerstone of U.S. strategic discourse. However, a persistent debate about the vulnerability and necessity of these massive vessels has raged for years, intensifying after events like the 1981 Falkland Islands War, which highlighted the potential threat posed by anti-ship missiles.

This discussion has been vividly brought to the forefront by the novel Red Tide. Written by M.P. Woodward, a former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, Red Tide is more than a thriller, it’s a chilling hypothetical that mirrors real strategic dilemmas. The novel presents a high-stakes conflict over advanced semiconductor chips from Taiwan, where a Chinese surprise attack cripples the U.S. fleet, sinking aircraft carriers, and seizing control of vital manufacturing facilities.

Red Tide has been described by the U.S. Naval Institute as raising “important real-world questions about the U.S. Navy’s ability to remain the world’s guarantor of a free sea in the twenty-first century”. The book’s narrative, which depicts horrific losses for the U.S., serves as a cautionary tale about the potential speed and intensity of a modern, high-end conflict with China.

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The Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) Challenge

The fictionalized scenario in Red Tide is a powerful reflection of a very real and growing threat: China’s Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy. This comprehensive military doctrine is designed to prevent an opposing force, such as the U.S. Navy, from entering a specific operational area and to limit its freedom of action if it does manage to enter. China’s A2/AD approach is multifaceted, integrating advanced missiles, submarines, and aircraft to achieve sea denial within its claimed territorial waters.

Central to this strategy are two carrier-killer anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs): the DF-21D and the DF-26. The DF-21D, a medium-range ballistic missile with a range of over 1,450 kilometers, and the DF-26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile with a reach of 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers, are both equipped with maneuverable re-entry vehicles (MaRVs) and are specifically designed to target moving naval vessels. The operational ranges of these missiles are significant because they exceed the combat radius of U.S. Navy carrier-based fighters, forcing U.S. carriers to operate at greater distances and potentially creating a no-go zone for surface ships in the Indo-Pacific.

China’s A2/AD capabilities are not limited to ASBMs. They also include a sophisticated array of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and a large, modern submarine fleet. The YJ-18 ASCM, for example, uses a subsonic cruise mode before transitioning to a supersonic terminal attack phase, while the supersonic YJ-12 can perform evasive maneuvers and give a defending ship as little as 45 seconds to react after detection. China’s 66-strong submarine fleet, including advanced diesel-electric and nuclear-powered variants, adds complexity to the maritime picture, particularly in the ‘Near Seas’ where U.S. reconnaissance is increasingly constrained.

The effectiveness of these kinetic weapons is dependent on a robust Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) network and a kill chain that can continuously track a target. China has invested heavily in this area, launching a series of Yaogan satellites to support ASBM targeting efforts and developing over-the-horizon radar capabilities. These efforts, combined with advanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, aim to degrade a Carrier Strike Group’s command, control, and communication systems, effectively blinding and deafening it before an attack.

The U.S. Response: From “Red Tide” to Reality

In response to these threats, the U.S. Navy has recognized the need for a new strategic approach. The traditional reliance on a few concentrated, high-value assets like aircraft carriers is being challenged by the realities of modern warfare. The Navy’s new operating concept, Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO), aims to counter China’s A2/AD strategy by creating a more dispersed and networked force. DMO focuses on spreading naval units over a wider area to complicate adversary targeting, distributing sensors and weapons across a greater number of platforms, and increasing the use of long-range weapons and unmanned systems.

This is where the concept of the “fifth platform” comes into play. The focus of the fifth platform is on advanced, unconventional solutions to counter China’s overwhelming offensive. This fifth platform can be understood as advanced unmanned or optionally manned systems, particularly those operating in the undersea domain. Explicitly mentioned in Red Tide, the fifth platform solution is long-range under water drones.

The real-world equivalent of this fifth platform concept is the U.S. Navy’s aggressive development of a hybrid fleet that integrates manned and unmanned platforms. A key component of this is the development of Extra-Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicles (XLUUVs), such as the Orca, Manta Ray, and Snakehead. These advanced UUVs are designed for long-range, high-endurance missions, with some platforms capable of submerged operation for up to 90 days. Their modular design allows them to be reconfigured for a variety of missions, including Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), mine countermeasures, and covert payload delivery, all while keeping human personnel out of harm’s way.

The fifth platform, as a concept, offers a compelling counter to A2/AD threats. By deploying numerous, relatively inexpensive, and stealthy unmanned systems, the U.S. can project power and influence without risking high-value manned assets in direct confrontation. These UUVs enhance the principles of DMO by contributing to distributed lethality and increasing the resilience of the overall fleet architecture.

However, significant challenges remain. The effective operation of UUVs, particularly in a swarm where multiple units must work together, is hindered by the profound limitations of underwater communication. The underwater environment’s low bandwidth and high latency make real-time coordination exceptionally difficult. While the concept of the fifth platform is highly plausible and strategically attractive, its full effectiveness is contingent on overcoming these technological hurdles through sustained investment and innovation.

In conclusion, the debate over the obsolescence of aircraft carriers is not an assessment of whether they will disappear, but rather a recognition of the evolving nature of warfare and the need for strategic adaptation, the same conclusion presented by Woodward in Red Tide. The fifth platform, embodied by advanced UUVs, is a critical component of the U.S. Navy’s response to modern A2/AD threats. While the dramatic sinkings in Red Tide are fictional, they serve as a powerful thought experiment, highlighting the need to embrace a new era of naval power that is dispersed, resilient, and leverages the power of autonomous systems to counter the growing vulnerabilities of traditional, high-value assets.

Red Tide is available to pre-order now. Published 23 September 2025.

“Authentic and electrifying, Red Tide’s shocking sea actions and high-stakes geopolitical dramas rhyme with history and ring with truth. This is one sea story you don’t want to miss!”—Adm. James Stavridis, USN (Ret.), 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and author of The Admiral’s Bookshelf and 2034: A Novel of the Next World War.

“Simply superb. In Red Tide, M.P. Woodward delivers an epic tale reminiscent of Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising masterpiece. Military thriller aficionados rejoice—this is what you’ve been waiting for!”—Don Bentley, New York Times bestselling author of Forgotten War.

“M.P. Woodward’s Red Tide is a high-stakes, adrenaline-laced naval thriller ripped straight from tomorrow’s headlines. The best thriller I’ve read this year! With missiles in the air and warships on the move, it’s a masterclass in geopolitical strategy and military tactics, humanized through a foundation of bonds forged in the crucible of combat. A former U.S. Naval Intelligence officer, Woodward brings authentic insight and razor-sharp storytelling to every page, creating a terrifyingly plausible scenario of the next world war, one I pray remains a work of fiction. Read it today!” —Jack Carr, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Red Sky Mourning.